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ANALYSIS: HOW NIGERIA LOST $10 BILLION TO CRUDE OIL THEFT IN SEVEN MONTHS

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Between January and July, Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, lost an average of 437,000 barrels of oil a day to criminals.

Last week, the Group Managing Director of NNPCL, Mele Kyari, headlined the State House media briefing, expressing concern about the menace of oil theft undermining Nigeria’s production and consequently fiscal capacity.

Mr Kyari blamed various sections of the Nigerian society for being complicit in the theft of millions of barrels of crude oil, mentioning even that make-shift pipelines and stolen fuel have been found in churches and mosques.

Between January and July, Africa’s biggest oil producer lost an average of 437,000 barrels of oil a day to criminal entities and individuals who illicitly tap pipelines onshore and offshore in the Niger Delta region, a PREMIUM TIMES data analysis has shown.

At current prices, the stolen oil is worth more than $10 billion, which is equivalent to N4.3 trillion (at N430 to a dollar). This financial loss is more than 50 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves. It is also more than double Nigeria’s total revenue between January and April, a period when Nigeria’s total revenue was unable to service its debt and the country had to borrow for everything else including payment of workers.

Nigerian production fell in the first seven months of the year to about 1.1 million barrels a day of crude equivalent in July from over 1.4 million barrels in January, according to data obtained from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The average quota set by OPEC for Nigeria is 1.73 million barrels per day during the period.

The Nigerian government has attributed its low output to large-scale theft of crude and related pipeline sabotage. This damage has reduced exports, forced some companies to shut down production and crippled the country’s fiscal stability.

For the first time since 2015, the world is in the midst of a sustained oil boom, yet Africa’s leading producer is not tapping from the proceeds. The escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have seen crude oil prices rise to an average of $112 per barrel in the first half of 2022.

The Nigerian treasury, which should be raking in high revenues, has been squeezed at both ends of the oil trade – upstream, by one of the biggest frauds in Nigerian history related to a fuel subsidy bill worth upwards of $9 billion in 2022, and downstream, by the theft of oil on an industrial scale at the source.

Data analysis
At the start of the year, Nigeria produced 1.41 million barrels per day compared to the average OPEC quota of 1.68 million barrels per day for January. This amounts to a shortfall of about 270,000 barrels per day. With the price of crude at $85.24 in January, this shortfall translates to Nigeria losing a staggering $23 million daily.

Total production in February stood at 1.37 million barrels per day against the OPEC quota of 1.7 million barrels per day. The shortfall for that period was 328,000 barrels per day, which resulted in a loss of $30.81 million daily (at $93.95 OPEC basket price).

By March, the price of crude had jumped to $113 per barrel and OPEC had increased Nigeria’s quota to 1.71 million barrels per day. However, Nigeria’s production dropped to 1.34 million barrels, a daily shortfall of 378,000. This means the country was also losing $42.8 million worth of revenue daily.

Although oil prices dropped to $105 in April, OPEC still increased Nigeria’s required production to 1.73 million barrels per day. But Africa’s largest producer was only able to turn a daily output of 1.32 million barrels.

With some companies shutting production in May, Nigeria’s output further dropped to 1.23 million barrels per day compared to the average OPEC quota of 1.75 million. This amounts to a shortfall of 520,000 barrels per day. It also translates to a loss of $59 million in daily revenue since the oil price increased to $113 per barrel in May.

By June, OPEC basket price had climbed again to $118 per barrel. Still, Nigeria’s woes continued with total production dropping to 1.23 million barrels per day compared to OPEC’s required production of 1.77 million. This shortfall amounted to 534,000 barrels per day, resulting in a loss of $62.86 million daily.

For the seventh consecutive month, Nigeria’s output witnessed a sharp drop in July. Total production was 1.18 million barrels per day against OPEC’s 1.79 million barrels quota.

The OPEC Reference Basket also fell $9.17 or 7.8 per cent month-on-month in July, from $117.72 to an average of $108.55 per barrel.

Nigeria’s production shortfall in July thus amounted to 616,000 barrels per day, resulting in a $66.86 million daily loss.

A spotlight on oil theft
In the absence of effective action, the criminal business of oil theft has been growing steadily in Nigeria. To access the oil, criminal syndicates tap pipelines and other infrastructure in the Nigeria Delta.

“The pipeline taps are so sophisticated that they ran for 3-4 kilometres and would have involved cranes, industrial equipment and at least 40 workers,” Mr Kyari, the NNPCL chief said. “I can tell you that in one line just less than 200 kilometres we had 295 illegal connections.”

As it stands Nigeria is losing 95 per cent of oil output to criminals at oil hub Bonny, the town after which its premium oil grade Bonny Light is named and a key export point for the country.

The country can only secure 3,000 barrels out of 239,000 barrels injected into the pipeline from Bonny Terminal, the NNPCL Boss said.

This rate of theft has forced the NNPCL and their Joint Venture (JV) partners to shut down two production fields.

“No one produces oil so that the next person can take it,” Mr Kyari added. “The wise thing to do is to stop production.”

A trend
Usually, crude losses are suffered by companies who transport their products through pipelines with vulnerability to sabotage, but not all companies suffer crude losses.

Last year, Nigeria lost $4 billion to theft at the rate of 200,000 barrels per day.

In 2020, crude losses from theft and sabotage amounted to $1.63 billion at the average price of crude $41.65 per barrel. This was 6.10 per cent of total fiscalised production for the year.

Nigeria’s oil auditing agency, NEITI, indicated that in 2019, the West African country lost 42.25 million barrels of crude oil to oil theft, valued at $2.77 billion.

A year earlier, in 2018, about 53.28 million barrels of crude vanished from Nigeria’s resources.

Fiscal challenges
According to the federal government, the economic sabotage is pushing Nigeria to the financial brink. It is also the reason for NNPC’s inability to remit oil sales receipts to the central bank in the last six months.

The NNPC’s transformation into a public limited liability company further compounds the problem.

President Muhammadu Buhari said he is “worried” about how the large-scale crude oil theft is affecting the country’s revenue “enormously.”

The gross oil and gas federation revenue for the full year of 2022 was projected at N9.37 trillion. Still, as of 30th April 2022, only N1.23 trillion was realised out of the projection of N3.12 trillion, representing a mere 39 per cent performance.

Nigeria’s fiscal performance report for January to April noted that this underperformance of oil revenue was due to significant oil production shortfalls such as shut-ins resulting from pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft as well as high petrol subsidy cost due to higher landing costs of imported products.

Financial analysts said $10 billion in revenue would have saved the country, especially in recent times when the economy faces a double whammy: an empty treasury and rapid decline. Less than 10 per cent of that money would have been able to address the demands of university lecturers who have been on strike since February.

Is the government helpless?
As the oil theft menace reached an all-time high, President Buhari ordered the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Lucky Irabor, to coordinate a process that will ensure both kinetic and non-kinetic interventions including engagements of communities, private contractors, and technology.

Through this effort, security officials have destroyed 959 metal tanks for storage purposes, 737 ovens, 452 dug-out pits, 355 cooking pots, and 179 wooden boats between April and August, this year.

They also recovered 35.8 million litres of crude, 22 million litres of diesel, 0.15 million litres of premium motor spirit, 0.76 million litres of kerosene, 207 pumping machines, 12 welding machines, two power generators, and two filling machines.

Also, 11 vessels, 30-speed boats, 37 trucks and cars were impounded, while 122 suspects were arrested in connection with various cases of theft of petroleum products.

Last month, the government launched ‘Crude Theft Monitoring Applications,’ a platform created for members of host communities and other Nigerians to report incidents of oil theft.

Similarly, NNPCL awarded a multi-billion naira pipeline surveillance procurement to a former leader of the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta, Tompolo.

Mr Kyari said the government’s security agencies are doing an excellent job of containing this, but as you do this, “sustenance is everything and therefore we decided that we need private contractors to man the right of way and also operate outside the right of way so that they can also join us to manage members of the community.”

“It is difficult to manage the issue of crude oil theft but we are not helpless and our efforts are paying off,” he said.

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N3.92TN FUEL SUBSIDY TOPPLES DEFENCE, HEALTH, EDUCATION BUDGETS

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Fuel Pump

The N3.92tn spent as subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, from January 2020 to June 2022 is higher than the cumulative individual federal budgets for health, education and defence during the 30-month period.

Findings show that over the last 30 months, Nigeria has spent more on fuel subsidy than on either the health, defence or education ministries.

An analysis of petrol subsidy expenditure and ministerial budgets from January 2020 to the first half of 2022 indicated that while the Federal Government spent N3.92tn to subsidise PMS during the period, its budgets for education, health and defence during the same period were N2.28tn, N1.68tn and N3.06tn respectively.

This shows that the government spent more funds on petrol subsidy in the 30-month duration than what the health, education or defence sectors got in the same review period.

Further analysis showed that in 2020, the combined budgets of health, education and defence was N1.922tn, while fuel subsidy alone gulped N450bn.

Fuel subsidy spending, however, jumped in 2021 to N1.43tn, whereas the combined budgets for health, education and defence in that year were estimated at N2.288tn.

In the first six months of this year, the government spent N2.04tn on fuel subsidy, while the cumulative budgets for health, education and defence stood at N2.81tn.

Economists as well as oil and gas experts told our correspondent that the Nigerian fuel subsidy impact was not just taking a huge toll on education, health and defence, but wondered whose interest it was really serving.

They were not comfortable with the persistent rise in Nigeria’s fuel subsidy amidst the country’s high indebtedness and other economic challenges.

They explained that the fuel subsidy cost over the last 2.5 years represented a lost opportunity to invest in key capital resources to raise the literacy, standard of living and security of the average Nigerian.

“Nigeria’s fuel subsidy programme has continued to limit remittances to the Federal Account Allocation Committee by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for distribution to the Federal Government, states and local government areas,” the President, Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, told our correspondent.

Analysts believe that many Nigerians are shouldering the cost of education, health and security through sundry private arrangements, while fuel subsidy offers zero succour.

They explained that a better incentivised workforce in the health, education and defence ministries was possible by realising savings from subsidy removal or reduction.

They also stated that civil service’s compensation and the national minimum wage remained a delicate topic as the ongoing strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities underscored the need to address and lay to rest the civil service compensation and incentives conversation.

The PUNCH, for instance, exclusively reported recently that the Nigerian Economic Summit Group had raised concern of impending fiscal crisis in Nigeria following the continued rise in fuel subsidy.

It disclosed this in its September 2022 report titled, “The State of Nigeria’s Economy,” stressing that the Federal Government’s huge fuel subsidy spending had been a drain on the country’s revenue despite the rise in crude oil prices in 2022.

The NESG said the government should cut its fiscal deficit to avert an impending fiscal crisis, highlighting the gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidy as one of the measures to achieve this.

“Embark on the gradual phasing out of the fuel subsidy programme,” the economic think-tank told the Federal Government, stressing that sustaining the programme was “disastrous.”

It added, “Aside from taking a clear position on the fuel subsidy issue, the Federal Government must begin the shutting down phase of subsidy programmes to save the country from impending fiscal crisis.

“Understandably, this suggestion will affect the welfare of the citizens, but it is only in the short term. On the other hand, the more extended effects of sustaining this programme are disastrous.”

On his part, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, Dr. Muda Yusuf, stated that the government should accelerate the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.

The PIA calls for the halt of petrol subsidy, but the government has not implemented that aspect of the Act after passing it into law since August last year.

“The oil and gas sector reform, which is now being anchored on the Petroleum Industry Act, should be accelerated in order to ensure the unlocking of the enormous value in the oil and gas sector, particularly the gas sector,” Yusuf stated in his remarks on the Nigerian economy after 62 years.

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NIGERIA GETS WORLD BANK’S $750M TO IMPROVE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

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Nigeria’s 36 states may attract investments and boost industrial activities as the World Bank Board approved the sum of $750m to strengthen the Business Enabling Environment across the country.

Coming under the State Action for Business Enabling Reforms (SABER) programme, the development according to the Special Adviser to the President on Ease of Doing Business/PEBEC Secretary, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, in a statement, cuts across four reform areas with Disbursement Linked Indicators covering improving land administration and land investment process; improving the business enabling infrastructure; increasing sustainable large-scale investments; and enabling firm operations.

SABER is a three-year performance-based intervention jointly designed by the PEBEC Secretariat and the World Bank Technical team with support from the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning (FMFBNP) Home Finance Department, and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) Secretariat.

“All participating states and the FCT could potentially receive a maximum of $52.5m during the 3 years.

“There have been extensive engagements with the States by the PEBEC Secretariat and other programme partners to strengthen the programme design and the State’s capacity to deliver on the expected results” the statement added.

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MORE AIRLINES DEPART EMPTY AS CHARGES, REJECTIONS STIFLE EXPORT

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Air freighters offloading consignments at the cargo section of Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos… recently

• Air freight import-to-export ratio slumps to 87:13 • Stakeholders condemn overseas ban of local yam, beans, smoked fishes, ginger, others • Regulators squeak under staff shortage, multiple guidelines, poor compliance with standards • Single guideline, better cooperation imperative, say FAAN, NEPZA

Almost a year after The Guardian report on foreign airlines departing Nigerian shores empty, the situation has changed, but for the worse. Today, more airlines are departing without exportable goods, much to the pains of stakeholders and loss of foreign exchange earnings worth billions of dollars yearly.

The Guardian findings showed that besides mails that topped cargo net export in 2021, the country slumped in the export of agricultural produce following high rate of rejections and prohibitions overseas over poor packaging, documentation and alleged noncompliance with set standards.

Compared to the import-to-export ratio that was given as 66:34 in 2017, last year’s ratio stood at 87:13, though movement of goods through the airports had increased by 56 per cent compared to 2020.

While regulators blame exporters for failure of due diligence, operators push back on regulatory bottlenecks, one-too-many local agencies and conflicting guidelines, high cost of freight, multiple charges and extortions even on goods that are not prohibited.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) earlier this month, led an inter-agency team to the United Kingdom on a fact-finding mission as part of efforts to address issues that inhibit the growth of Nigeria’s non-oil export sector and curb incidences of export rejects.

Executive Director/CEO of NEPC, Dr. Ezra Yakusak, who led the team, lamented that the cases of rejection had resulted in stricter inspection regime on Nigerian exports in the importing countries and in some cases led to the suspension or ban of some products.

“It also attracted unfavourable international media attention, gave the country a negative image as well as constituted financial burden to the exporters, who had to bear the cost of either reshipping the banned products to Nigeria or destroying it,” he added.

Indeed, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) lately estimated a massive post-pandemic recovery surge in air cargo globally. African airlines lately saw 11.6 per cent volume increase compared to that of 2021, given the upward growth in export.

In Nigeria, findings show that the export of international air cargo has been on the decline since 2017. Five years ago, the country had an import-to-export ratio of 66:34. It dropped to 84:16 in 2018; 86:14 in 2019, 89:11 in 2020 and 87-to-13 in 2021.

Though demand volume spiked by 52 per cent in 2021, a total of 217.8 million kg was freighted through the air. About 188.74 million kg were imported and only 29 million kg worth of goods were exported.

The imbalance leaves the country as the fifth busiest cargo airport on the continent, with Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Kenya, leading. Cairo International Airport in Egypt is second, followed by Oliver Reginald Int’l Airport, South Africa and Addis Ababa Bole Int’l Airport, Ethiopia.

A recent visit to the cargo section of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos, confirmed the surge in the number of airplanes that import cargo into the country. However, three out of every four now depart without exportable goods.

A source, who did not want to be mentioned, said, “it is not for complete lack of exportable goods from the cargo sheds. There are goods coming in bits, but they are too small for what the airliners require.

“You cannot be offering a 100 to 200 tonner aircraft five to 10 tons and expect the operator to pay $35,000 charges just to pick five tons. That is a loss. Instead of paying so much for so little, it pays them to fly with bags of sand instead and for free,” he said.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Chisco Logistics, Obinna Anyaegbu, who spoke at the Chinet 22 Aviation and Cargo Conference in Lagos, recently, noted that the logistic services and airlines need more produce/products for export, as there is a low supply for freight services.

“There is a lack of supply and marketing of our produce and products globally. Trust me, the Chinese people want to eat our pineapples, bananas, plantains and so on. We have some of the tastiest and most nutritious fruits in the world; but demands and supplies are not meeting right now.

“While cargo planes and bellies of passenger planes fly empty, fruits are rotting away on farms. These are serious gaps. About two years ago, during the COVID-19 lockdown, our vehicle-service was down, we leased aircraft to lift cargo on Lagos-Accra-Lagos route. It was a 14-tonner 737 aircraft but we were struggling to get two tonnes a week. So, the export is not there.

“We observed that the biggest player on the route was DHL and they are bringing about 70 to 80 tons of cargo into Nigeria and moving it across West Africa. So, it is mostly imported goods that are moving via the African routes. Kenya is taking out a lot (export) and they have a great supply contract. This is because they meet the international standards,” Anyaegbu said.

Exporters, however, said there is sufficient cargo potential for global market off-takers but for prohibitions, yet unresolved and bureaucratic bottlenecks barring volume exporters from the airports.

For instance, Nigerian dried white and brown beans have been prohibited in European Union member-states in the last five years. This is not connected with the possession of pests and chemical pesticides that are allegedly injurious to health.

Also banned in the EU, The Guardian learnt, are sesame seeds, melon seeds, dried fish and meat, peanut chips and palm oil.

The American government has since March 2018 banned the export of smoked catfish and other fish products from Nigeria over lack of adequate documentation to support the exports as and when due. Catfish Farmers’ Association of Nigeria (CAFAN) said the market is worth over N20 billion, yearly.

Air freighters offloading consignments at the cargo section of Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos… recently

Still on the rejection list, according to exporters, are: some variants of Nigerian yam, hibiscus flowers (for zobo drink), mushrooms, bitter leaf, pumpkin (ugu) leaf, waterleaf, garden eggs, shelled groundnut, crayfish and others.

The Shippers Association of Lagos estimated that the seized or prohibited items make up 82 per cent of Nigeria’s exportable agro-allied produce. Nigeria and other developing countries are expected to lose between $12 and $15 billion by 2025 to rejected exports, according to the World Bank.

President of the Shippers association, Jonathan Nicole, noted that many of the goods were allegedly exported illegally and rejected for not having government clearance. Meanwhile, some of the prohibited produce still gain warm reception when routed through neighbouring African countries like Ghana, where they are well-packaged, face less hassles and are comparatively cheaper to export.

Chief Executive Officer of ABX World, Capt. John Okakpu, said despite kick-off of the African Continent Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Nigeria is still not primed to benefit from its export potential.

“Our hibiscus (zobo) export crippled some time ago when Mexico banned it. That is because almost 100 per cent of the export goes through Mexico to the world market. Our ginger from Kachia in Kaduna goes via India and Pakistan to the world market.

“The biggest nightmare is our yam. Nigeria tops the charts with about 67 per cent of global yam production, dwarfing Ghana’s 10 per cent. Yet, Ghana contributed 94 per cent of the total yams exported from West Africa and 22 per cent of global exports in 2019. This is a big shame.”

A year ago, The Guardian reported complicated roadblocks mounted by government agencies in the form of extortions, harassment and multiple charges on export goods, causing international cargo airlines to prefer flying out of Nigeria empty. Among the 16 sundry charges tracked for goods coming in or departing the country via airports, only five are officially recognised.

Besides Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Port Health, Quarantine and Customs, the following agencies also collect unofficial charges en bloc: Anti Bomb Squad of the Nigeria Police Force, National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Standard Organisation of Nigeria (SON) and National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA).

Chairman, Export Group of Lagos Chamber Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Bosun Solarin, said bureaucracy and cumbersome regulations had made it almost impossible for exporters to thrive, adding that Nigeria should blame itself for rejected goods.

“Should we continue to allow badly processed and packaged items/goods through those cargo sheds? No wonder our products receive negative comments outside the country,” Solarin queried.

She advised government and its multiple agencies to deemphasise revenue generation, describing the current levies as stifling. She mentioned that NAFDAC charges businesses about N40,000 for each product, with a cap of only five products per producer.

“Why restrict businesses that have the capacity to do more products? If the business wants to add the sixth product, they are charged N90,000 for NAFDAC certification. Why?”

A member of the Association of Export Agents, Olufemi Kayode, also regretted that the country had not taken deliberate efforts to develop processing and export zones to international standards.

“Our terminals are in complete chaos and unkempt for international export. Go to SAHCO and NAHCO terminals in Lagos and see for yourself. The micro and small-scale exporters are not being attended to. So, we have the terminal been patronised by only individual exporters.

“Only 60 per cent of what comes through the airports are informal trade and people will cut corners because the system is allowing them. Yet, the same stake and system are against small-scale businesses. No one has good knowledge of packaging, that is why our goods are being rejected or destroyed abroad,” Kayode said.

Officials of the Nigeria Agricultural Quarantine Services explained that the mandatory guidelines are clearly stated online. “But most exporters are always looking for shortcuts. More so, we are grossly understaffed to fully monitor the processes from the farm, to storage, packaging, and export – as provided for in the guideline.”

Assistant Director, Investor Promotion, Nigerian Export Processing Zone Authority (NEPZA), Augustine Onyekwere, admitted that, unfortunately, air transport and export sections are still suffering the old malaise of multiple charges, and perhaps now at its higher levels.

Onyekwere said government agencies had put up many bottlenecks to make it very difficult for air cargo sector to thrive.

“Until these hurdles are crossed, government efforts to attract more revenue into the gross domestic product (GDP) will not materialise. That is the reason the air cargo sector is not thriving and costs the country $250 billon on agro-export produce to the country alone,” he said.

Onyekwere added that it was to solve those problems and entice investors that the Federal Government had designated five airports as special economic and free trade zones.

“Unfortunately, most of the (government) agencies do not understand the workings of a free trade zone,” he said.

Aviation Security Consultant, Group Capt. John Ojikutu (rtd), however, disagreed with the idea of designating already busy airports as free trade zones, while there are idle dedicated cargo airports.

Ojikutu noted that there are 22 federal airports with an average of 16 million passengers yearly; five international airports with 80 per cent of the annual passenger traffic and 90 per cent (200,000 metric tons) of air cargo traffic out of over 100 million tons available nationwide.

“But there are 13 designated as cargo airports with less than 10,000 tons yearly, yet not one of them is considered for Export Processing Zone (EPZ) nor Economic Free Zone (EFZ), but the international airports that are also joint-users with the Nigerian Air Force (NAF); with multiple federal agencies, mostly located in complicated urban development areas and complicated security control. Who is doing these to us unilaterally, using the President’s name always? Who will save us from ourselves?”

Managing Director of FAAN, Capt. Rabiu Yadudu, said an aviation cargo guideline should be the starting point to correcting the wrongs and mistakes that had been impediments over the years.

“In this document, we should be able to identify these impediments and chart an implementable action plan that will be followed by all stakeholders to achieve our common goal, which is to reverse the deficits in imports/exports ratio and domestic cargo distribution.

“In my opinion, having an operational single window for export will be a starting point and FAAN is willing and able to provide the enabling facilities,” Yadudu said.

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